Friday 24th January 2025
As the 2025 Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) concludes, one message is clear: amid deepening fragmentation, resilience is no longer a luxury – it’s a necessity.
Released on Wednesday, January 23 by the WEF, in collaboration with Oliver Wyman, the ‘Navigating Global Financial System Fragmentation’ report put this issue into sharp focus, as did the headline findings of this year’s Trade In Transition study that was launched at the Annual Meeting by Economist Impact. With projections showing that rising geo-economic fragmentation could reduce global GDP by up to USD 5.7 trillion, the impact could be more severe than both the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite this, as Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) put it to the ‘Finding Growth in Uncertain Times’ panel on Tuesday, January 21, trade has remained resilient. In the face of rising protectionism, she said: “WTO studies show that 80% of world goods trade – better than 75% which we said before – is taking place on WTO terms.” Creating openness and predictability in our sector has been key to this – qualities that should be scaled for the world’s supply chains if we’re to stabilise economies and lay the foundations for growth.
Scaling this strategy by promoting greater collaboration and universal innovation has underscored conversations all week. It comes as no surprise, either, that emerging markets need the most support in this regard, with Matt Strahan, Private Markets Lead, World Economic Forum explaining: "Fragmentation not only fuels inflation, but negatively impacts economic growth prospects in emerging markets, who depend on an integrated financial system for their continued development."
STRATEGIES FOR STABILITY
In the wake of the Annual Meeting, it is DP World’s belief that we – as leaders in trade – have a role to play in scaling global stability and equity. Through aligned, global progress we can use our networks to make resilience the norm.
So, as the forum concludes and a new year begins, here are the three main strategies for resilience we urge our peers and partners to act on in 2025:
1. PUSH FOR REGIONAL AND BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
Global consensus might not be possible, but we can start small with regional and bilateral agreements.
Throughout the week, agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) were highlighted for their role in promoting regional trade and economic integration despite global challenges. Nigeria’s Vice-President Kashim Shettima, at the 'Friends of AfCFTA: Turning Digital Trade into a Catalyst for Growth in Africa’ forum, praised this saying: “The AfCFTA is both an economic arrangement and a bold statement of our shared destiny. While Africa may have missed the agricultural and industrial ages, it is positioned to thrive in the post-industrial knowledge age.”
Coupled with this is the power of targeted investments. DP World’s work at our Dakar terminal in Senegal, for example, demonstrates how strengthening supply chains on a regional level can boost localised trade and diversify global supply routes, creating widescale flexibility and resilience.
2. PRIORITISE PUBLIC-PRIVATE COLLABORATION
No one can innovate on the scale needed to stabilise trade flows, the economy or our climate alone; the $6.2 trillion needed every year for climate finance attests to that.
During the ‘Climate Finance: More Actors, More Tools’ session on Wednesday, January 22, Beatriz Martin Jimenez, President of Europe, Middle East and Africa and Member of the Group Executive Board, UBS, hit this point home: “The question is how to scale investment. Investing together – showing you can build a track record and generate returns – is key.”
“This is why public-private dialogue and partnerships are critical,” said Henadi Al Saleh, Chair, Board of Directors, Agility, in the ‘Changing Nature of Trade’ session on Thursday, January 23. Unlocking finance, resource and expertise mitigates risk and makes both progress and resilience equitable.
For digital adoption, which is crucial for growth and greater collaboration in trade and beyond, these partnerships are unavoidable. Our Deputy CEO and CFO, Yuvraj Narayan, during his ‘Investing in Infrastructure and Growth: Uplifting Communities and Economies’ panel on Wednesday, January 22, highlighted exactly how impactful greater partnership could be in this regard: “With only 4% of the $410 trillion held in global private assets invested in developing countries, the need to work together to increase investment – especially for digitalisation – is crucial for turning risks into growth for these markets.”
3. EMBED SUSTAINABILITY IN TRADE POLICY
Truly resilient supply chains aren’t just adaptable to conflict or extreme weather; they must offer long-term value by operating sustainably. Making sustainability part of trade policy and business strategy is how we’ll achieve this.
Practical solutions like our Modal Shift Programme – encouraging rail over road transport – were highlighted during our conversations at the WEF as impactful means of cutting emissions and increasing supply chain durability. We cover other approaches to embedding sustainability progress in our article on rethinking GDP.
TIME FOR ACTION
WEF 2025 wasn't just a platform for dialogue; it provided a roadmap for action. As a partner to the world’s governments and businesses, DP world is ensuring that trade can be a powerful tool for equitable growth, climate action, and ultimately, stability. Through bold, collaborative leadership and action, we can make resilience a reality.